AI IPO Race: Anthropic $2T, OpenAI $30B Bridge, DeepSeek $14B

Anthropic: Closest to the Bell

According to Bloomberg, Anthropic confidentially submitted an IPO draft registration to the SEC in June 2024. Under confidential filing rules, the company must publicly file its S-1 at least 15 calendar days before the roadshow begins. If the S-1 is published as expected, an IPO in November is imminent.

Wall Street expectations are extraordinary: a fundraising ceiling of up to $100 billion, implying a $2 trillion valuation. If realized, this would surpass SpaceX's 2024 IPO as the largest listing in history.

The valuation rests on contrasting financials. First-half revenue reached $16.3 billion, yet net losses exceeded $80 billion. However, at an investor day in San Francisco last week, Anthropic disclosed Q3 revenue of $16.8 billion, up from $11.5 billion in Q2, and claimed adjusted profitability.

The market's appetite for a burn-cash-for-growth story will be tested by the details in the S-1.

OpenAI: Patient but Well-Prepared

OpenAI is taking a more measured approach. A $30 billion bridge round, led by UAE investors and Coatue, values the company at $125 billion pre-money. CFO Sarah Friar has internally targeted a 2027 IPO, and the company has also filed confidentially.

A notable detail: OpenAI is simultaneously negotiating a commercial agreement with the UAE for additional compute resources. Securing both capital and GPU capacity ahead of an IPO signals a focus on infrastructure readiness.

Originally expected to list in 2024, OpenAI has ceded the first-mover advantage to Anthropic. This may be strategic — allowing Anthropic to test public-market reception before OpenAI's own debut.

DeepSeek: The Challenger's Hand

DeepSeek's ¥100 billion (≈$14 billion) round is the largest in Chinese AI history, yet it remains an order of magnitude smaller than the cumulative $100+ billion raised by each U.S. rival. The target was upsized twice — from ¥50 billion to ¥80 billion, then to ¥100 billion — indicating oversubscription. Participation by CATL and Tencent adds industrial-strategic weight.

DeepSeek's differentiator is efficiency. In 2025 it delivered competitive models at a fraction of Silicon Valley's cost, triggering a $1 trillion global market sell-off. Its September 2024 V4.1 Flash release further lowered the price ceiling, prompting analyst firm Artificial Analysis to coin the term "DeepSeek death zone" for competitors unable to match either performance or price.

Like Moonshot AI, DeepSeek is preparing for an IPO that could become China's most-watched capital event in years.

Three Hands, One Table

Viewing the three trajectories together reveals several structural facts:

Scale disparity. Anthropic ($2T) and OpenAI ($1.25T) belong to the trillion-dollar club; DeepSeek operates at the hundred-billion level.

Losses are universal. Anthropic lost >$80B in H1; OpenAI's $30B bridge implies a high burn rate; DeepSeek is aggressively building AI data centers, driving up capex. Profitability is not a near-term priority for any of them.

Timing divergence. Anthropic is fastest, OpenAI targets 2027, DeepSeek is still en route. One source noted Anthropic's sheer size means its IPO timing will affect the appetite for subsequent listings in the following weeks.

Compute is the hidden thread. OpenAI negotiates UAE compute deals; Anthropic leases GPUs from SpaceX's Colossus 1 cluster; DeepSeek builds its own data centers. The ultimate goal of fundraising is GPU clusters, not cash alone.

Market conditions are volatile. Rising interest rates and debt concerns at AI infrastructure players like CoreWeave cast a shadow. Anthropic's IPO will serve as a live stress test for the entire AI sector's investment thesis.

All three companies are betting on the same premise: the AI capital story has only just begun.