Can Math Predict Love? Using the Drake Equation to Estimate Dating Odds

Life presents many seemingly complex problems; even love can be approached with mathematics, as mathematician Peter Bax demonstrates.

A Story

In a London alley, Peter Bax, a mathematician, sits at his desk facing a whiteboard full of formulas, pondering the question: Why am I still single?

He uses a Fermi‑style estimation, breaking the problem into simple factors such as the total number of women in London, the proportion in his age range, the proportion who are single, educated, find him attractive, and so on.

London's total female population (not the whole city).

Proportion of women in his age range.

Proportion who are single.

Proportion with higher education.

Proportion he finds attractive.

Proportion who might find him attractive.

Proportion of mutual attraction and compatibility.

Multiplying these factors yields a tiny number – about 26 potential partners in London, which translates to a probability of roughly 0.0000034 % on any given night.

Modeling Process

He defines basic parameters: potential girlfriends, UK population growth (~150,000 per year), female proportion (0.51), London‑resident proportion (0.13), age‑range proportion (0.20), educated‑female proportion (0.26), perceived physical attraction (≈0.05), and his own age (31 years).

Using a simplified version of the Drake equation, he relates the number of suitable women to these parameters, arriving at about 10,510 women meeting the basic criteria, which is 0.00017 % of the UK and 0.0014 % of London. After applying additional realistic filters (1/20 find him attractive, half are single, 1/10 are compatible), the estimate drops to roughly 26 women.

Drake Equation

The model is inspired by the Drake equation, originally devised to estimate the number of communicable extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way.

The equation multiplies factors such as the rate of star formation, fraction of stars with planets, number of habitable planets per system, fraction where life arises, fraction that develops intelligence, fraction that creates communication technology, and the average lifetime of such civilizations.

N = number of communicating civilizations.

R* = average rate of star formation.

fp = fraction of stars with planets.

ne = average number of habitable planets per star.

fl = fraction where life appears.

fi = fraction where intelligence evolves.

fc = fraction that develop communication.

L = average lifetime of communicating civilizations.

Both the Drake equation and Bax’s dating model illustrate how mathematical reasoning can be applied to problems of any scale.

Fermi Estimation

Fermi estimation emphasizes quick, order‑of‑magnitude calculations using reasonable assumptions and available data, favoring speed over precision.

In Bax’s case, he selected a handful of plausible parameters, multiplied them, and obtained a rough estimate of the number of suitable partners without exhaustive data collection.

Destined to Be Alone?

While the numbers are discouraging, Bax’s analysis is based on many assumptions; real life is far more complex. He can improve his odds by expanding his social circles, attending events, or using modern dating apps.

Confidence and personal charm also play crucial roles beyond any mathematical model.

Real Life

In 2010, Peter Bax, then a lecturer at the University of Warwick, published a tongue‑in‑cheek paper titled “Why I Don’t Have a Girlfriend,” applying the Drake equation to his own dating prospects.

He later met Rose, a woman who met his criteria, and married her in 2013, proving that even slim statistical odds can be overcome.

His advice to the lovelorn: increase exposure to places where potential partners gather, thereby raising the probability, just as the equation suggests.

Ultimately, the story shows that while numbers provide insight, human emotion and chance remain essential ingredients.

Reference:

[1] Backus, P. (2009). Why I don’t have a girlfriend: An application of the Drake Equation to love in the UK. [2] Fishbein, R. (2013, May 25). Man behind ‘Why I Don’t Have a Girlfriend’ theory to marry. Today.