How a Multi‑Dimensional Model Ranks China’s Historical TV Dramas

Research Background and Problem Definition

Historical drama is a major TV genre in China, preserving cultural heritage and shaping national memory. Existing rankings rely on a single metric such as Douban score, which leads to single‑dimensional evaluation, time bias, and confusion between authentic historical dramas and fictional costume dramas.

Research Significance

The study constructs a multi‑dimensional quantitative evaluation system to provide a more reliable reference ranking.

Research Object Definition

Historical drama is defined as a TV series set in a real Chinese historical period, featuring real historical figures or events, and reflecting the political, military, and social life of that era.

Inclusion criteria include authentic historical periods from pre‑Qin to the Republic era, main characters documented in historical records, and core plots based on official histories, folklore, or historical novels.

Exclusion criteria cover fictional historical dramas (e.g., "Nirvana in Fire"), pure wuxia/fantasy costume dramas, obscure works with fewer than 2,000 Douban ratings, and heavily idol‑oriented productions.

A total of 127 candidate works were screened, and the top 100 entered the final ranking.

Indicator System Construction

Hierarchical Model

The model adopts a three‑level hierarchy: Goal layer → Criterion layer → Indicator layer.

Indicator Details

Audience Reputation (A1, weight 35%)

Douban Score (B1) – 20% weight, source: Douban movie.

Five‑Star Positive Rate (B2) – 15% weight, source: Douban movie.

Market Impact (A2, weight 25%)

Number of Ratings (B3) – 15% weight, log‑standardized, source: Douban movie.

First‑Air Viewership (B4) – 10% weight, source: CSM media reports.

Professional Recognition (A3, weight 25%)

Feitian Award (B5) – 15% weight, source: State Administration of Radio, Film and TV.

Golden Eagle Award (B6) – 10% weight, source: Golden Eagle Committee.

Historical Value (A4, weight 15%)

Historical Restoration (B7) – 8% weight, expert assessment.

Costume & Props Accuracy (B8) – 4% weight, expert assessment.

Cultural Transmission Value (B9) – 3% weight, expert assessment.

Mathematical Model Construction

Data Standardization

Because indicators have different units, the range (min‑max) standardization method converts all to a 0‑100 scale.

Time Compensation Factor

To offset the lower online rating counts of early works, a time compensation factor T is introduced, where Y is the number of years since release; the maximum compensation is 25 years, equivalent to a 5% boost.

Comprehensive Evaluation Index (CEI) Formula

CEI is calculated by aggregating the weighted standardized scores of all secondary indicators, multiplied by the time compensation factor: CEI = T × Σ(weight_i × standardized_i).

Data Collection and Processing

Data Sources

Douban scores, rating counts, and five‑star rates – movie.douban.com (as of Dec 2025).

Feitian Award records – official website of the State Administration of Radio, Film and TV.

Golden Eagle Award records – Golden Eagle Committee website.

First‑air viewership – CSM media research and public reports.

Historical restoration and other subjective metrics – expert evaluations and professional reviews.

Sample Distribution by Historical Period

Period          Count   Share   Representative Works
Qing            25      25%     "Yongzheng Dynasty", "Kangxi Dynasty"
Tang            19      19%     "Zhenguan Zhi", "Da Ming Gong Ci"
Ming            13      13%     "The Great Ming Dynasty 1566", "Zhu Yuanzhang"
Three Kingdoms  11      11%     "Romance of the Three Kingdoms", "The Advisors Alliance"
Qin/War         12      12%     "The Qin Empire Series"
Han             10      10%     "Han Wu Da Di", "Chu Han Chuan Qi"
Song             5       5%     "Da Song Ti Xing Guan", "Qing Ping Le"
Other            5       5%     "Eastern Zhou Nations", "Genghis Khan"

Calculation Example

Using the 1994 TV series "Romance of the Three Kingdoms" as an example, the raw data were collected, standardized, weighted, and the time factor applied to obtain a CEI of 95.0, close to the published CEI of 95.8 (minor rounding differences).

Note: "Romance of the Three Kingdoms" is based on a novel; although faithful to the source, it deviates from official history, so B7 and B8 are rated as medium.

TOP‑100 Historical Drama Ranking

First Tier (CEI ≥ 85)

1. "The Great Ming Dynasty 1566" – CEI 97.2

2. "Romance of the Three Kingdoms" – CEI 95.8

3. "Towards the Republic" – CEI 94.3

Second to Fifth Tiers

Subsequent tiers are listed similarly, showing a gradual decline in CEI scores and highlighting the distribution of works across different historical periods.

Result Analysis and Discussion

Score Distribution Characteristics

Tier          Score Range   Count   Share   Typical Features
First         ≥85          10      10%     Widely recognized classics, strong audience and award support
Second        70‑84        18      18%     Excellent works with standout performance in at least one dimension
Third         55‑69        27      27%     Solid mainstream productions with balanced overall scores
Fourth        40‑54        27      27%     Medium‑level works with noticeable weaknesses
Fifth         <40          18      18%     Low‑rated, often idol‑oriented costume dramas

Key Findings

Quantity and quality are negatively correlated – the Qing period has the most titles (25) but a low average CEI (58.7), whereas the Qin/War period has few titles (12) but the highest average CEI (72.4).

Professional awards have a significant impact – "Romance of the Three Kingdoms" achieved a higher CEI than the higher‑rated "Towards the Republic" due to winning top Feitian and Golden Eagle awards.

Palace‑intrigue dramas hit a "ceiling" – despite a Douban score of 9.3, "Empresses in the Palace" scores only 51.8 in CEI because its historical restoration rating is low.

The time‑compensation mechanism effectively balances early works, granting a 5% boost to 1990s classics such as "Romance of the Three Kingdoms" and "Eastern Zhou Nations".

Limitations

Some early‑era viewership data are missing and were estimated.

Subjective indicators like historical restoration rely on expert judgment, introducing potential bias.

Social‑media metrics (e.g., Weibo heat, bullet‑screen sentiment) were not incorporated.

Data Sources: Douban Movie, State Administration of Radio, Film and TV, CSM Media Research (statistics as of December 2025).