Modeling Reasonable Price Fluctuations During Shanghai’s COVID Lockdown

Problem Background

Since Shanghai implemented city‑wide lockdown measures in April 2022, most residents were confined to their homes or neighborhoods, and shopping was limited to community group purchases or government‑supplied essentials. Prices of basic goods rose dramatically; for example, leafy vegetables that normally cost 3‑5 CNY per jin surged to 20‑25 CNY, and rice rose from 3‑6 CNY to 10‑15 CNY per jin. The lockdown disrupted logistics and production, leading to supply shortages and price hikes, raising the question of what constitutes a reasonable price increase.

Problem Statement

Collect data, identify the main factors influencing prices, and justify their relevance.

Develop a mathematical model to determine a reasonable price fluctuation range for a single commodity.

Develop a mathematical model to establish a reasonable price fluctuation range for a region over a period of time.

Use the models to assess whether the prices of goods such as vegetables, fruits, grains, and daily necessities during the lockdown were “excessively high” and evaluate Shanghai’s overall price level.

Based on the research, propose recommendations for keeping prices relatively reasonable during emergencies such as pandemic lockdowns.

Write a letter to the mayor of Shanghai presenting the research findings and suggestions.

References: [1] https://xw.qq.com/cmsid/20220520A05EXD00 [2] https://i.ifeng.com/c/8GAyju8xior