The Most Thorough Look Yet at Why Big Tech Layoffs Are Inevitable

1. Growth Is Never Guaranteed

Any growth depends on specific historical conditions. The rise of courier services relied on cheap labor and poor early retail infrastructure; WeChat’s explosion was possible because Chinese users had never adopted SMS or email and telecom‑provided systems were cumbersome. When the market wind stops, companies realize they never had real competitive wings.

2. Adding People Is the Lazest Fix

The myth that more staff solves problems is debunked by Brooks’s Mythical Man‑Month : doubling product managers does not double decision quality and halves collaboration efficiency. Yet hiring continues because leaders use headcount to signal influence; larger teams grant higher status regardless of genuine demand. Upper management also favors a “race‑horse” model where responsibilities are deliberately blurred, resources are abundant, and underperformers are swapped out.

3. Core Middle‑Management Skills Lose Value Outside Big Tech

Skills such as endless meetings, PPT creation, upward management, and vendor networking function well inside large firms but become ineffective elsewhere—like a rocket‑engine mechanic trying to fix a motorcycle. The analogy shows that the expertise is highly context‑dependent.

4. The Real Problem Is Excessive Leverage

Companies pay salaries of up to one million RMB but often cannot generate proportional revenue. If a firm cuts a high‑salary employee, it saves that amount; the remaining business typically continues operating with minimal impact. Firing 80% of staff rarely harms overall operations, and new hires rarely achieve a return on investment greater than one under current revenue levels.

5. Likely Paths for Affected Workers

Those still employed may endure the situation; others may move to senior roles in traditional industries, return to hometown businesses, become freelancers (photographers, dive instructors, content creators), accept lower pay at smaller firms, or lower personal financial leverage. A small group continues to pursue AI startups, though such ventures are dwindling.

6. Layoffs Will Not Stop Soon

As long as executives find profit margins and excessive labor costs, they will continue downsizing. Claims of “maintaining stability” are weak because concentrating highly educated talent in a few firms actually destabilizes society.

7. Workers Must Think More Critically

By monitoring signals from large firms and analyzing the underlying logic of layoffs, individuals can better anticipate when the next wave arrives and prepare financially and professionally.