Why Professionals Are Fleeing Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen: Data‑Driven Migration Insights

"We considered this decision for a long time," says Gao Ming, who recently left Beijing after 12 years to return to his hometown Chongqing, citing cheaper housing and easier schooling for his children.

Gao’s story reflects a broader trend: in recent years, “escaping the first‑tier cities” has become a persistent topic, driven not only by high housing prices and education concerns but also by health issues from smog and perceived unfairness of household‑registration policies.

Official statistics show that since 2015, the permanent resident populations of Beijing’s core districts and Shanghai’s urban areas have turned negative, with Beijing’s core districts seeing a 3% year‑over‑year decline last year, indicating a population turning point for these “population pumps.”

As population relief efforts deepen, migration is both voluntary and forced. To understand where the escapees are going, we analyzed massive mobile‑user lifecycle data from Q2 2017.

According to Aipu Big Data, “escapees” are defined as individuals who left Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou or Shenzhen and moved to a provincial capital or a hot second‑tier city, staying there for more than two months.

The migration map and top‑10 destination cities show that most leavers head to Chongqing, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Xiamen and Suzhou.

Chongqing emerges as the most popular destination.

Beyond the overall migration flow, Aipu examined the distribution of escapees from each first‑tier city individually.

The data reveal that Chongqing attracts the highest share of migrants from all four cities, followed by Hangzhou, Chengdu, Xiamen, Suzhou, Nanning, Nanjing, Changsha and Wuhan. Overall, migrants favor surrounding “potential” cities.

These destinations are mostly members of China’s “trillion‑yuan GDP club,” offering strong economies and abundant job opportunities, often labeled “quasi‑first‑tier” cities.

Higher happiness index than first‑tier cities.

Key attractions include lower housing prices, more job openings, lower congestion, shorter commutes and relatively lower living costs, collectively raising the happiness index for residents compared to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.

Housing price examples (January 2017) for the top‑10 inflow cities: Chongqing ¥7,431/m², Hangzhou ¥21,821/m², Chengdu ¥8,808/m², Xiamen ¥38,897/m², Suzhou ¥15,418/m², Nanning ¥7,535/m², Nanjing ¥24,936/m², Changsha ¥7,675/m², Wuhan ¥14,381/m², Xi’an ¥7,152/m².

Job opportunities are also plentiful, with rapid growth in finance, internet, telecommunications and other industries attracting Fortune 500 firms and fostering vibrant startup ecosystems.

Analysis of age distribution shows that 26‑35 and 36‑45 age groups dominate, accounting for 66‑77% of the escapees, reflecting individuals in their prime career and family‑building years.

Housing choices after migration.

Mobile‑terminal behavior (searches, browsing) indicates that 55.18% of migrants intend to buy second‑hand homes, 40.68% aim for new homes, while 43.62% consider renting. Thus, the majority plan to purchase property in their new city.

However, rising house prices in many inflow cities make buying challenging for recent graduates, making renting a pragmatic interim solution.