Model Perspective

Nov 7, 2026 · Fundamentals

15 Probability Pitfalls Visualized: Why 99% Accurate Tests Can Be 91% Wrong

This article illustrates 15 classic probability fallacies grouped into three root causes—wrong denominators, sampled data, and mistaking luck for patterns—using visual examples like the base rate fallacy, Simpson's paradox, and the birthday problem to reveal how intuition misleads.