How to Build a Full‑Chain Metric Anomaly Detection Framework for Business Operations

This article explains how to design a complete metric‑abnormality pipeline—from real‑time threshold alerts and statistical tests such as 3σ, GESD, IQR, and MBP to trend analysis with Mann‑Kendall and Prophet, and finally to deterministic and probabilistic attribution using contribution decomposition and SHAP, all illustrated with practical business cases.

Business AnalyticsProphet modelSHAP

0 likes · 20 min read

How to Build a Full‑Chain Metric Anomaly Detection Framework for Business Operations

DeWu Technology

May 31, 2024 · Artificial Intelligence

In-depth Analysis of Prophet Time Series Forecasting Model

The article offers a thorough examination of Facebook’s Prophet forecasting model, detailing its additive decomposition of trend, seasonality, holidays and regressors, the underlying Bayesian inference via Stan, the full training‑and‑prediction pipeline, data‑normalization tricks, uncertainty estimation, and practical source‑code insights for e‑commerce applications.

Bayesian inferenceProphet modelStan framework

0 likes · 21 min read

In-depth Analysis of Prophet Time Series Forecasting Model