What Will Shape FinTech in 2026? 9 Key Predictions Unveiled

CB Insights’ 2026 FinTech outlook, based on deep tracking of over 25,000 fintech firms (recruiting momentum, commercial maturity, partnerships, and Mosaic scores), extracts nine critical predictions that reshape how financial services will be delivered and who will control customer relationships.

Prediction 1: New‑Bank entrants will steal consumer deposits from traditional banks

New‑banks are no longer startups; they are globally expanding digital finance institutions. Chime completed the largest U.S. new‑bank IPO in June 2025, raising $864 million; PicPay listed on Nasdaq; Nubank secured a U.S. banking licence and placed a co‑founder in charge of its U.S. subsidiary.

Recruiting data shows Revolut leading with a perfect score, hiring regulatory and compliance heads across 20+ countries; YouTrip focuses on APAC, especially Australia; Kuda deepens its African footprint; Toss Bank targets cross‑border remittances; FairMoney and N26 are pivoting—FairMoney toward a pan‑African universal bank, N26 integrating AI, mortgages and risk‑management.

Report conclusion: The next‑generation new‑banks will launch full‑service products in new markets, putting unprecedented pressure on traditional banks’ consumer deposits.

Prediction 2: BNPL titans Klarna and Affirm wage a “bank war”

Buy‑Now‑Pay‑Later (BNPL) has evolved from a checkout feature to a full‑spectrum consumer‑banking strategy. Klarna (2025’s largest fintech IPO) and Affirm (higher valuation, expanding into Europe) share 27 partners, including Apple, Adyen, Google and J.P. Morgan.

Affirm partners with Fiserv to embed debit cards; Klarna uses Marqeta and Visa for U.S. debit‑card pilots, while both firms pursue banking licences. Recruiting data shows Affirm hiring credit‑card and banking product analysts, and Klarna bolstering UK regulatory compliance and fraud detection.

Report insight: As AI agents reshape consumer scenarios, pure BNPL will lose momentum; both firms aim to become full‑spectrum consumer banks.

Prediction 3: Robinhood transforms into a financial super‑app

Wealth‑tech equity financing grew 90% YoY in 2025. Robinhood, now market‑value leader, is building banking, credit and crypto infrastructure. It acquired Bitstamp and LedgerX, partnered with Offchain Labs to launch the “Robinhood Chain” L2, and integrated cash‑delivery services with GoPuff and Coastal Community Bank, while acquiring Stakk to strengthen core banking capabilities.

Recruiting data shows Robinhood hiring credit‑card, banking product and fraud analysts. Report forecast: Robinhood will evolve from a broker‑only model to a re‑engineered consumer‑bank built on a brokerage shell.

Prediction 4: Major crypto firms target big banks

Ripple, Coinbase and Circle each added over 50 partners in 2025, all aiming at traditional banking systems. Ripple offers white‑label custodial and tokenisation solutions to BBVA, Absa Group, etc.; Coinbase moves into institutional brokerage, custody and payments; Circle embeds USDC into core banking platforms such as FIS and Fiserv.

Ripple acquired four companies to build a full‑stack custodial, fund‑management and cross‑border payment platform, and together with Circle secured conditional approval for a U.S. national trust bank licence in December 2025. Report judgment: Crypto‑native firms are shifting from cooperation to competition, vying for end‑to‑end banking relationships.

Prediction 5: Banks tokenise existing assets to protect deposits

To counter crypto‑driven pressure, banks are converting deposits into blockchain tokens, offering the same protection while enabling faster settlement and programmable transfers.

Key players include Stablecore (Mosaic score 747, top 2 %) and Fireblocks (score 867, top 1 %). Major banks such as J.P. Morgan, Citi and Standard Chartered have launched tokenised deposit and money‑market products. Report view: This defensive move will become a competitive advantage.

Prediction 6‑7: Stablecoins power AI‑payment tracks; on‑chain AI agents spawn autonomous agent economies

AI agents need programmable, always‑online money—stablecoins fit perfectly. In 2025, AI agents led collaborations, and payment giants like Mastercard expanded crypto partnerships from six to over 25.

From early startups to Coinbase, all AI‑payment infrastructure firms are using stablecoins. On‑chain AI‑agent platforms are moving from experiment to core infrastructure, enabling autonomous execution of DeFi trades, governance, and token‑based ownership and monetisation.

Prediction 8: “Know‑Your‑Agent” (KYA) tools emerge to regulate AI payments

Once AI agents gain transaction rights, new compliance boundaries are needed. KYA startups raised over 450 % in funding last year, though their commercial maturity remains “in‑deployment.” Companies such as Keycard, Helmet Security, RunLayer, Overmind and T54 Labs are building identity, permission and behaviour‑scoring systems for autonomous software.

Report forecast: KYA will become the AI‑payment equivalent of KYC for human banking, forming the foundation of trustworthy AI‑driven transactions.

Prediction 9: Prediction markets shift from betting platforms to trusted data providers

Prediction‑market equity financing surged 35‑fold in 2025. Polymarket’s valuation jumped from $1 billion to $9 billion; Kalshi’s valuation rose 120 %. Both are hiring marketing talent, building regulated exchanges and partnering with Harvard, Dow Jones and Crypto.com to turn market signals into institutional‑grade data products.

Report conclusion: Winners will not merely capture trading volume but will convert collective intelligence into decision‑making infrastructure.

The CB Insights report warns that new‑banks, BNPL giants, Robinhood, major crypto firms, stablecoins, AI agents and prediction‑market data will reshape the underlying logic of financial services. Traditional banks that fail to accelerate tokenisation and AI initiatives risk losing deposits and customer relationships.