Why Containers Will Overtake VMware in 2019: Industry Trends and Predictions

The original Forbes analysis predicts that enterprise application development will rapidly move away from legacy virtual machines toward containers and Kubernetes orchestration in 2019, posing a direct challenge to VMware’s hypervisor‑centric business model.

While each public cloud service provider (CSP) offers proprietary services, the emerging multi‑cloud era demands applications that can run on any private or public cloud. This requires adopting a standard container architecture, implementing a common set of container‑accessible services, and leveraging Kubernetes for orchestration.

Key acquisitions slated for 2019 accelerate this shift: Dell Technologies announced a reverse merger with VMware to relist the combined entity, signaling increased investment in private‑cloud infrastructure; IBM’s proposed purchase of Red Hat brings OpenShift into its portfolio, prompting competitors to reassess their cloud‑native strategies.

VMware’s CSP partners are expected to continue the “embrace and extend” approach—encouraging customers to migrate VMware‑hosted workloads to a specific cloud, then upsell additional cloud services, making it costly for customers to leave.

Predictions for 2019 include: AWS may miss its deadline for a production‑grade Outposts release, but this is unlikely to harm AWS; instead, it could push customers toward AWS’s proprietary public‑cloud architecture. Migrating Java applications to containers will become simpler, and developers should watch the Jakarta EE project for guidance.

Other vendor moves are anticipated: Oracle may push its cloud‑native stack as an alternative to Red Hat OpenShift, though database licensing concerns could hinder adoption; Canonical and SUSE are likely acquisition targets for server‑supplier groups; Lenovo may acquire a private‑cloud software vendor and evaluate SUSE; Supermicro could compete with Lenovo for SUSE or Canonical assets. Chinese CSPs such as Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, Huawei, and Inspur are expected to continue investing heavily in OpenStack‑based private clouds.

Overall, the cloud industry’s aggressive push against VMware marks a significant shift in the competitive landscape, though VMware will remain relevant for the foreseeable future. The author plans to monitor these technical challenges and trend predictions throughout the coming year.