Model Perspective

Jun 4, 2026 · Industry Insights

How Goldman Sachs Predicts Spain’s World Cup Victory: Inside the Elo‑Based Monte Carlo Model

Goldman Sachs used an Elo‑rating system combined with Poisson‑regressed goal forecasts and a Monte Carlo tournament simulation to assign Spain a 26% chance of winning the 2026 World Cup, while also highlighting the model’s blind spots such as defense, injuries and coaching factors.