Why Xiangpiaopiao Lost 168 Million Cups and Can’t Circle the Earth: The Invisible Digital War

In the 2025 fiscal year Xiangpiaopiao reported 29.26 billion CNY revenue, an 11% YoY decline, and a net profit of only 95.24 million CNY, down 62.38%. Core brewed‑drink sales fell by 1.68 billion cups, a loss of nearly 3.30 billion cups compared with 2023, turning the once‑proud slogan “over 3 billion cups a year could circle the Earth” into a distant legend.

Q1 2026 showed a dramatic rebound: revenue rose to 8.78 billion CNY (+51.41% YoY) and net profit reached 93.38 million CNY, almost matching the full‑year profit of 2025. However, a deeper look reveals this is a technical rebound caused by a shifted seasonal window—2025’s Spring sales were compressed into January, while 2026’s Spring was delayed to February, extending the peak period. Combining the fourth‑quarter and first‑quarter data of the two years yields only a 10.74% overall increase, indicating a modest, not spectacular, growth.

The root problem is the traditional “channel‑as‑king” model. Manufacturers sell to distributors, who sell to secondary distributors, then to retailers, and finally to consumers. This chain isolates the manufacturer from the end‑user, leaving it unaware of who buys, why, when, or how they feel about the product. The article emphasizes that such a disconnect is a fatal flaw in the consumer‑sovereignty era.

By contrast, digital‑native brands Hey Tea and Yuanqi Forest operate with a data‑centric approach. Hey Tea’s mini‑program holds detailed profiles of tens of millions of members—including age, gender, purchase frequency, flavor preference, spend, and even preferred drinking times. Yuanqi Forest runs a real‑time data‑mid‑platform that tracks sales across regions, channels, and SKUs, enabling product launches and adjustments within a week.

Because of this gap, Xiangpiaopiao’s product‑development cycle still follows a 6‑12‑month “market research → expert review → small‑scale trial → mass rollout” process, causing new products to miss market hot spots. Its reliance on distributor experience for stock allocation leads to overstock in some regions and shortages in others, while celebrity endorsements and price promotions remain one‑off tactics that fail to build lasting consumer assets.

The article proposes a three‑step digital‑transformation roadmap. First, adopt a “one‑code‑per‑cup” system (一码一码) that assigns a unique QR code to each beverage, capturing consumer demographics, location, and purchase time at the moment of scanning. The “five‑code integration” (箱码、瓶码、导购码、门店码、经销商码) links data from manufacturer through distributor, retailer, and finally to the consumer, providing full‑chain visibility.

Second, implement a full‑domain fan‑sales (全域粉销) strategy to convert data‑captured consumers into brand fans. High‑frequency purchasers are invited to exclusive member clubs with privileges, while key opinion consumers (KOC) become brand ambassadors, and even distributors and store owners are integrated into the fan ecosystem, turning channels into active promoters.

Third, build a robust data‑mid‑platform to unify consumer and channel data, supporting four core business functions:

Product R&D: analyze taste preferences, consumption habits, and feedback to design market‑fit新品, reducing trial‑and‑error costs.

Marketing: evaluate conversion effectiveness across channels and audiences to allocate spend with higher ROI.

Channel Management: monitor regional and channel sales to optimize inventory placement, avoiding overstock and stock‑outs.

Customer Service: mine consultation and complaint records to identify product or service issues and improve satisfaction.

With these capabilities, Xiangpiaopiao can achieve agile, data‑driven decisions similar to Hey Tea and Yuanqi Forest—quickly responding to market shifts, adjusting product lines, and aligning inventory with real‑time demand.

The article concludes that true digital transformation is not merely building a website, a Tmall store, or a mini‑program; it requires a fundamental shift from “channel‑centric” to “user‑centric”, from experience‑based to data‑based decision‑making, and from one‑off transactions to long‑term consumer relationships. Without closing the consumer‑connection gap, traditional FMCG firms will continue to be outpaced and eventually eliminated.